Instead of “I think X will happen,” say:
“I’m 70% confident that X will happen.”
Then track calibration: over 100 predictions where you said 70%, you should be right ~70 times. thinking in bets annie duke pdf
Subtitle: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Target Audience: Decision-makers, poker players, investors, managers, and anyone prone to hindsight bias. Instead of “I think X will happen,” say:
Thinking in Bets is a practical guide to decision-making that forces you to detach your ego from your choices; it transforms life from a game of "being right" into a game of "maximizing probabilities."
Duke warns that judging decision quality solely by outcome quality is a cognitive trap. She introduces a simple matrix: “I’m 70% confident that X will happen
To improve, you must separate the two. A PDF version of the book is excellent for this because you can jump back to this matrix repeatedly until it becomes second nature.