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| Item | Summary | |------|----------| | Critical mechanism | Planar slip parallel to Joint J1, intersecting the crown and toe. | | Deterministic FS (wet) | 1.34 – below the required 1.5 safety margin. | | Probability of failure | 38 % for FS < 1.5 under the 10‑yr storm; 5 % for FS < 1.0. | | Primary control | Joint cohesion and transient pore‑pressure on J1. | | Design adequacy | Existing geometry is not sufficient for the design storm; mitigation is required. |
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Mean FS (wet) = 1.31
Standard deviation = 0.12
| Probability Level | FS | Interpretation | |-------------------|----|----------------| | P = 0.05 (5 % failure) | 1.12 | Meets the 1.0 threshold but not the design target of 1.5. | | P = 0.01 (1 % failure) | 0.97 | Unacceptable – indicates a 1 % chance of catastrophic failure under the worst joint‑strength combination. | If you're interested in Rocscience software
Probability of failure (FS < 1.5) = 38 %
The distribution is right‑skewed, reflecting the non‑linear influence of joint cohesion.